[영문뉴스] '트럼프의 북한 군사적 초토화 메시지엔 사전 경고 없을 것'
[영문뉴스] '트럼프의 북한 군사적 초토화 메시지엔 사전 경고 없을 것'
  • 위키리크스한국
  • 승인 2017.09.21 08:54
  • 수정 2017.09.21 08:54
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Trump's speech no prelude to military action

By Kang Ji-Hyun

U.S. President Donald Trump's latest threat to "totally destroy" North Korea does not necessarily mean the U.S. will take any immediate military action against the Kim Jong-un regime, analysts said Wednesday.

At the United Nations General Assembly hall, Tuesday (local time), Trump said the United States has "great strength and patience," but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, it will "totally destroy" North Korea.

Calling the North Korean leader "Rocket Man," Trump said Kim is "on a suicide mission" for himself and for his regime.

His remarks rattled foreign leaders gathered for the General Assembly. Political analysts and North Korea experts have shown divergent views on

his speech, but many agree Trump just repeated his fiery rhetoric against Kim, who he earlier nicknamed "Rocket Man" on Twitter.

Balbina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies, said: "I do not think this speech is a prelude to a U.S. strike or war with NK."

Hwang served as a special adviser on East Asian affairs in the George W. Bush administration.

It was Trump's sternest warning yet to the North, and came after Pyongyang's sixth and most powerful nuclear test, Sept. 3.

Trump also called on member states to work together to isolate the Kim regime until it stops its "hostile" actions.

However, analysts said Pyongyang will defy Trump's warning with more missile launches and nuclear tests.

"Threats to destroy North Korea do not provide assurance. Rather, this bellicose and unnecessarily provocative language just invites North Korea to retaliate with threats of its own," said Kelsey Davenport, the director of Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association.

"What the international community needs to hear from the U.S. is a strategy that balances pressure with a path forward to engage Pyongyang in talks over its nuclear program."

Tara O, an adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, also said Kim will not heed Trump's threat to denuclearize.

"Kim wants to use the nuclear weapons to threaten the U.S. to sever the alliance (with South Korea), and ultimately unify the Korean Peninsula under its rule by threatening South Korea, without worrying about the American military might and resolve."

Analysts said Trump's speech indicates the U.S. will continue its push for sanctions and pressure on the North, dimming chances for dialogue with the North in the near future.

Hwang said Trump's unequivocal position on the North puts South Korean President Moon Jae-in "on notice" regarding any potential wavering Moon might have on his current hard-line rhetoric and stance toward Pyongyang.

"In other words, Moon will find it very difficult to implement any engagement with the North unilaterally, unless Pyongyang's attitude or actions show significant signs of change," she said. "But importantly, despite Trump's clear and strident warning, I do not think it precludes the possibility of the U.S. pursuing other options short of military action on the North, for example, political or diplomatic engagement."

Davenport said Trump's unequivocal warning aims to prevent a miscalculation by Kim.

"Vague threats are not going to change North Korea's behavior and they also increase the risk of conflict by increasing the chances of North Korea miscalculating," she said.

Not doing enough

Analysts also said Trump's bombastic rhetoric is aimed at North Korea, but also at the U.N. and its members.

"I think Trump's message primarily was to Kim Jong-un, but also to those countries that are not doing enough to implement U.N. Security Council resolutions sanctioning North Korea," said Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks.

"The language Trump used conveyed his frustration with North Korea that's launching missiles and conducting nuclear tests that threaten the region and the entire international community. The leadership in Pyongyang should understand this message from Trump."

Hwang said it's important to put Trump's specific statements within the entire context of his speech.

"The main purpose of the speech was not North Korea. Trump specifically ‘targeted' a number of other ‘rogue' states, including Iran and Venezuela, although certainly he used the starkest and strongest words against the North," she said.

"But the main ‘target' of his message was actually the U.N. itself, and a challenge to the U.N. to reform and better fulfill its mission and, perhaps most importantly, to establish unequivocally what the U.S. now considers the most important principle in international affairs: sovereignty."

O said Trump's speech sent a clear and consistent message.

"When Trump said if the U.S. has to defend itself and its allies, then the ‘rocket man is in a suicide mission for himself and his regime,' it is a warning against Kim Jong-un to not put the U.S. in that situation," she said.

"U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis had made it clear that such a case would be if North Korea threatens Guam or other U.S. territory or allies. North Korea realizes the only acceptable future is denuclearization."

kbs1345@naver.com

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