• 기 밀SEOUL 000162


• 국방부망 배포¹⁾


• 국방부망 배포²⁾


• 행정명령 12958: 비밀해제: 01/25/2018


• 태그: PGOV ³⁾, PREL ⁴⁾, PINR ⁵⁾, KS ⁶⁾, KN ⁷⁾


• 제 목: 유력한 장관 후보자들


• 분류자: 정치 참사관 조셉 윤⁸⁾ 근거 1.4 (b,d).


• 번역자: PoirotKr (번역 주: 트위터 사용자명) — Micheal H. Rhee 2011/10/25 21:32

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000162

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs], PREL [External Political Relations],
PINR [Intelligence], KS [Korea (South)], KN [Korea (North)]
SUBJECT: LIKELY MINISTERIAL APPOINTEES

Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).

¶1. (C) Summary: The Presidential Transition Committee is
expected to announce the ministerial nominations as early as
January 26 for discussion in the National Assembly session
that starts January 28. Though speculation is rife, a few
names have started to rise to the top. Han Seung-soo,
Special Envoy on Climate Change for the United Nations
Secretary-General, is considered the top candidate for prime

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minister, followed by former Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo
and Transition Committee Chair Lee Kyung-sook. Career
diplomats account for the majority of the foreign ministerial
candidates, including Ambassador to Japan Yu Myung-hwan,
Former Ambassador to France Jang Jae-ryong, and former
Ambassador to Canada Lim Sung-joon. Yim Tae-hee, Chief of
Staff to President-elect, is considered a strong candidate
for the Blue House Chief of Staff, which does not require
parliamentary approval. END SUMMARY.

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Prime Minister
--------------

¶2. (SBU) There are three names reportedly being screened to
become Lee Myung-bak's first prime minister: head of the
transition team Lee Kyung-sook; former foreign minister,
Ambassador to the U.S. and President of Korea University Han
Seung-joo; and former foreign minister, Ambassador to the
U.S., and National Assembly Member Han Seung-soo. After a
month's worth of speculating, Han Seung-soo, currently the UN
Special Envoy on Climate Change, has recently emerged as the
top candidate for prime minister and press reports on January
25 say he is all-but-certain to get the job. His extensive
experience includes stints as a Seoul National University
professor, Commerce and Industry Minister, ROK Ambassador to
the U.S., Blue House Chief of Staff, deputy prime minister
for finance & economy, foreign minister, and UN General
Assembly President, all testifying to his ability - a quality
the president-elect values highly.

¶3. (C) Han Seung-soo is not without his detractors. Five
years senior to the President-elect, he carries an unshakable
"old-boy" image. Moreover, he is often considered a
political opportunist, having served in major Cabinet posts
in conservative and progressive administrations of the 1980s
and 1990s, and has easily shifted party affiliations. A
senior adviser to Lee Myung-bak recently told the Charge that
he thought those who had served in previous administrations
should not be considered since their ability to survive
various administrations showed they did not have strong
principles.

¶4. (SBU) Other candidates for prime minister include Han
Sung-joo, Acting President of Korea University, who
previously served as foreign minister and ROK Ambassador to
the U.S. His knowledge of the United States argues in his
favor due to the emphasis Lee has placed on strengthening the
U.S.-ROK Alliance. Transition Committee Chairwoman, Lee
Kyung-sook also remains on the roster as a strong option,
with her widely-recognized ability to deal smoothly with all
the complexities of the transition team. Many of our
contacts, however, expect Lee Kyung-sook to be the next
education minister.

----------------
Foreign Minister
----------------

¶5. (SBU) President-elect Lee has a huge pool of foreign
affairs advisers with either extensive diplomatic experience
or prestigious academic careers. Whoever is selected will
have a far more powerful mandate than the incumbent foreign
minister. The incoming administration's plan (subject to
National Assembly approval) to merge the Ministry of
Unification into the foreign ministry will give this
individual control over all foreign and security-related
policies, including those dealing with North Korea. Lee's
closest foreign policy advisors include Yoo Chong-ha, former
foreign minister (1996-98), and Hyun In-taek, professor at
Korea University. Yoo headed the foreign affairs policy team
of Lee's Grand National Party (GNP) during the presidential
campaign. However, given his age, Yoo is unlikely to become
Seoul's top diplomat. Meanwhile, Hyun, who is an alumnus of
the president-elect's university, is a key member of the
foreign affairs subcommittee on the transition team. Hyun,
who advised Lee throughout the campaign, is more likely to be
the next national security adviser rather than foreign
minister.

¶6. (C) According to a close adviser, Lee Myung-bak was
initially leaning toward appointing a professor as the first
foreign minister, but, after finding out that past foreign
ministers with academic backgrounds had typically failed, Lee
had decided to go with a professional diplomat. Some
newspapers report that Han Sung-joo, also a contender for
prime minister, may get the foreign minister job given his
ties with the president-elect and experience as Seoul's top
envoy to Washington (2003-2005). Among current diplomats,
Ambassador to Japan Yu Myung-hwan, Former Ambassador to
France Jang Jae-ryong, and former Ambassador to Canada Lim
Sung-joon are said to be top candidates. All three have
excellent reputations in the ministry. Transition team
insiders have told poloffs that another frequently named
contender, current Ambassador to the U.S. Lee Tae-sik, does
not have much of a chance.

¶7. (SBU) The media has also suggested two politicians could
take the job - Park Jin and Chung Mong-joon, both of the GNP.
Park, formerly a diplomat and senior aide to former
President Kim Young-sam, is famous for his fluent English.
He even worked as a translator for former president Kim
Young-sam. He is now in charge of drawing up Lee's foreign
policy at his transition team. Chung Mong-joon, a
businessman and five-term lawmaker, is the vice president of
FIFA and the president of the Korea Football Association. He
is a controlling shareholder in Hyundai, a conglomerate his
father founded and the company at which the president-elect
served as CEO. However, both appear to be more interested in
seats in the National Assembly, their aides say, and Lee,
himself, has said he will not appoint politicians, asking
instead that they run for National Assembly seats.

-----------------------------
National Intelligence Service
-----------------------------

¶8. (C) Former Justice Minister Kim Sung-ho is considered one
of the strongest candidates for NIS chief. Choi Shee-joong,
a long-time confidant to the president-elect, is also a
strong candidate because of his extensive background as both
a reporter with Dong-A Newspaper and former pollster at and
Chairman of Gallup Korea. Lee Jong-chan, former Chief Public
Prosecutor of the Seoul High Prosecutors' Office, is
considered a possible candidate for both the NIS Director and
the justice minister. Contacts have told poloffs that
Kyonggi University professor Nam Joo-hong, a Lee Myung-bak
adviser, is lobbying for the NIS post but is unlikely to get
it.

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Other Positions
---------------

¶9. (SBU) Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lee
Sang-hee, current Defense Minister Kim Jang-soo, and former
2nd Army Commander Kim In-jong are all said to be among those
candidates considered for the next defense minister. Apart
from the prime ministerial post, transition team chair Lee
Kyung-sook is considered more likely to get the Education and
Science Minister position. GNP female lawmaker Chun Jae-hee
is regarded as a strong candidate for the Health, Welfare &
Women's Affairs Minister. Another confidant to the
President-elect, Baek Sung-woon has been mentioned as a
possible candidate for the Government Administration and
Safety Minister.

¶10. (SBU) For economic positions, the leading contender for
minister of Strategic Planning and Finance (a new position
combining the roles of the former minister of Finance and
Economy and minister for Planning and Budget) is thought to
be Kang Man-soo, former Finance and Economy vice minister
under President Kim Young-sam and currently head of the
Transition Committee on Economics (macro and finance). Yoon
Jin-sik, former Commerce and Industry Minister and current
Vice Chair of the Transition Committee on National
Competitiveness, comes in a distant second. There has been
little meaningful speculation about who will head the
Ministry for Knowledge-based Economy (combining the former
Commerce and Industry, Information and Communications, and
some elements of Science and Technology). For trade
minister, some say the current Minister Kim Jong-hoon, could
remain (at least until ratification of the KORUS FTA),
particularly given the President-elect's preference for
appointing ministers who are experts in their field; but much
will depend on who is appointed foreign minister (to whom the
trade minister reports).

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BLUE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF
-------------------------

¶11. (SBU) The frontrunner for Blue House Chief of Staff, a
position that does not require National Assembly approval, is
Yim Tae-hee, a second-term GNP lawmaker and Chief of Staff to
President-elect Lee Myung-bak. Yim's neutrality during the
run-up to GNP presidential primaries last year served him
well and eventually led to his appointment as the chief
secretary to the president-elect. Yim played a key liaison

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role between the president-elect's secretariat and the
transition team in shaping the latest Cabinet reorganization
plan. But some press reports say that the President-elect
has advised Yim to run in the April 9 National Assembly
elections. Other candidates for the post include Seoul
National University professor Rhyu Woo-ik, who was the
architect of many of the President-elect's major campaign
pledges including the Grand Canal Project, and former
Commerce, Industry and Energy Minister Yoon Jin-sik. Rhyu is
a strong candidate for the post, but Yoon seems more likely
to run in the April 9 elections.
STANTON