• 
  
  기 밀 SEOUL 003058


• 
  
  국방부망 배포¹⁾


• 
  
  국방부망 배포


• 
  
  행정명령 12958: 비밀해제: 12/10/2014


• 
  
  태그: KN²⁾, KS³⁾, PGOV⁴⁾, PREL⁵⁾, PINR⁶⁾


• 
  
  제 목: 다크호스 후보 문국현에게 기회가 있을까?


• 
  
  분류자: 정치 참사관 대리 대사 브라이언 맥피터스⁷⁾. 근거 1.4 (b,d).


• 
  
  번역자: PoirotKr (트위터 사용자명) — Micheal H. Rhee 2012/11/04 00:13

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003058
 
SIPDIS
 
SIPDIS
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: KN [Korea (North)], KS [Korea (South)], PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs], PREL [External Political Relations], PINR [Intelligence]
SUBJECT: DARK HORSE CANDIDATE MOON KUK-HYUN - DOES HE HAVE
A CHANCE?
 
 
Classified By: A/POL Brian Mcfeeters. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Dark horse independent candidate Moon
Kuk-hyun presented himself as a liberal, pro-business
alternative to conservative Grand National Party (GNP)
candidate Lee Myung-bak. Speaking comfortably in English and
Korean before a packed audience at the Seoul Foreign
Correspondents Club on October 10, Moon laid out his strategy
and policy goals and -- highlighting his international
business experience -- spoke about the need for economic
reform using a market-driven approach instead of through
government-funded projects that, Moon says, fuel corruption
and waste government funds. Moon advocated improving
relations and economic cooperation with North Korea but said
that denuclearization and normalized U.S.-North Korea
relations were a prerequisite. Despite the press interest in
Moon's event -- in stark contrast to the poor attendance at
recent United New Democratic Party (UNDP) events -- and
Moon's mild increase in support ratings (his support ratings
typically fall just above 5 percent, although one recent
press poll had his support as high as 8.1 percent), he
remains unlikely to close the gap in public support and mount
a significant threat to Lee Myung-bak. End Summary.
 
---------------
DOING IT MY WAY
---------------
 
¶2. (C) In prepared English remarks, Moon Kuk-hyun, vowing to
have his support rating up to 30 percent by the end of
November, said he will launch his own political party in
early November to support his bid for the presidency. In
order to emphasize that his would be a corruption-free
political party, he will not allow current politicians to
join for now, though he anticipates politicians from both the
GNP and the UNDP will want to join. As a latecomer, Moon
recognized that he has many obstacles to face, including
insufficient attention from the South Korean media.
Nevertheless, Moon anticipated he would gain popularity at
the expense of Lee Myung-bak, because people want a
business-oriented leader who will create opportunity, protect
the environment, and prevent increasing economic disparity.
 
------------------------
DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA
------------------------
 
¶3. (C) Moon articulated three principles that, if elected,
would drive his presidency: first, creating a permanent peace
on the Korea peninsula; second, recognizing that Korea cannot
"go it alone" and needs help from the international
community; and, third, being proactive. As president Moon
vowed to go beyond easing tension between North and South
Korea and promote good relations and economic cooperation,
but said that normalized U.S.-North Korean ties were an
"absolute pre-condition." Even though North and South are
the primary players on the Peninsula, South Korea needs to
communicate effectively with other countries both in and
beyond Asia. Moon said even the U.S. has to have allies, and
Korea's efforts to build and strengthen ties with other
countries will ultimately improve Seoul's relations with the
U.S.
 
¶4. (C) Moon discussed five policy goals to enable the Korean
people to arrive at the final destination of unification:
 
--Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,
--Peaceful integration of North Korea into the international
community--including normalization of ties with the U.S. and
Japan,
--Replacement of the 1953 armistice agreement,
--Establishment of a regional mechanism for peace in
Northeast Asia,
--Economic integration between North and South Korea.
 
Once relations are established and economic integration is
underway, human rights issues (to include abductions) will
naturally be resolved. He said he would advise the Japanese
to follow a similar tack in settling their own outstanding
issues involving abductees.
 
¶5. (C) Moon said the North-South Summit was a good idea with
some practical proposals beneficial to both sides, and that
 
most of the proposals are viable and make business sense.
The North has significant land and labor resources, which are
essential in helping South Korean businesses grow. Any plans
that do not make business sense -- aside from humanitarian
aid -- should be dropped. Moon repeated that
denuclearization and normalized U.S.-North Korea relations
should be a prerequisite to implementing any of these
proposals.
 
----------------------
ELIMINATING CORRUPTION
----------------------
 
¶6. (C) Moon said top-down, government controlled business
projects, like Lee Myung-bak's cross-Korean canal proposal,
tend to lead to corruption, misuse of government funds, and
environmentally unfriendly building projects. He said vast
sums of money are wasted annually on government-funded
building, which has led to sharp increases in real estate
prices. Moon said real estate prices in Seoul doubled during
Lee's stint as mayor, making it too difficult for many
Koreans to afford housing. He warned this increase was not
unlike Japan's real estate bubble in the 1980s, which
ultimately caused severe problems for the Japanese economy.
As president of Korea, Moon vowed to stop top-down, corrupt
building projects and instead dedicate the money saved to
training high-tech workers, helping small businesses, and
funding education reform.
 
--------------
WOMEN FOR MOON
--------------
 
¶7. (C) On October 9 a number of Korean women's organizations
announced their support for Moon, and 1600 women leaders have
endorsed Moon, because, Moon claimed, women recognize that
mass corruption is part of what disadvantages women; Lee
Myung-bak and his cronies are "holding the people hostage."
Moon said he has been a longtime advocate for more women in
the workplace and has tried to remove glass ceilings. In
order to become a competitive, creative society, South Korea
must reduce corruption and increase the role of women in
society.
 
-------
COMMENT
-------
 
¶8. (C) At the October 10 session, Moon compared his
knowledge of business to GNP frontrunner Lee Myung-bak, but
said that, unlike Lee, Moon was corruption free. More
people, disgusted with the possible UNDP candidates, are
beginning to support Moon, and with some luck, Moon could
emerge as the single liberal candidate. Moon's late entry
into the race may temporarily reward him with media attention
but for now Moon lacks the strong organization and party
support necessary to mount a serious bid in the race.
STANTON