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  기 밀 SEOUL 003256


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  국방부망 배포¹⁾


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  국방부망 배포


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  행정명령 12958: 비밀해제: 12/10/2014


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  태그: CH²⁾, KN³⁾, KS⁴⁾, PGOV⁵⁾, PINR⁶⁾, PREL⁷⁾, RS⁸⁾


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  제 목: 문국현 대통령 후보, 국제 경쟁력에 치중


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  참조: 가. SEOUL 3058 나. SEOUL 3225


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  분류자: 알렉산더 버시바우 대사⁹⁾ 근거 1.4 (b,d).


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  번역자: PoirotKr (트위터 사용자명) — Micheal H. Rhee 2012/11/02 23:01

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003256
 
SIPDIS
 
SIPDIS
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: CH [China (Mainland)], KN [Korea (North)], KS [Korea (South)], PGOV [Internal Governmental Affairs],
PINR [Intelligence], PREL [External Political Relations], RS [Russia; Wrangel Islands]
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE MOON KUK-HYUN FOCUSES ON
INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
 
REF: A. SEOUL 3058
 
B. SEOUL 3225
 
Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On November 1 independent presidential
candidate Moon Kuk-hyun outlined his platform during
breakfast with the Ambassador. Moon's support rate has been
hovering just below 10 percent, but he is still optimistic
these rates will reach 20 percent by the end of November.
Moon's overall goal is to increase Korea's international
competitiveness by reducing corruption, improving education,
and increasing the productivity of small- and medium-sized
businesses. Moon also advocates strengthening the U.S.-ROK
alliance diplomatically -- he supports the KORUS FTA -- and
militarily, since Moon sees a looming China threat.
Nevertheless, improving relations with North Korea is the key
to reducing Chinese influence and fostering economic
development in Northeast Asia. Moon's policies put him to
the right of United New Democratic Party (UNDP) candidate
Chung Dong-young, but Moon has a long, probably impossible,
climb in the polls before he garners enough support to emerge
as the progressive party candida
te. END SUMMARY.
 
------------------------
The Creative Korea Party
------------------------
 
¶2. (C) Moon Kuk-hyun, who officially launched his Creative
Korea Party (CKP) on October 30, told the Ambassador he is
optimistic his support rates -- now at about 8 percent --
would climb to 20 percent in November. Moon adviser Eugene
Yun (protect) said the mainstream conservative media has
largely ignored Moon. Thus far most support for him is a
result of internet news sources. However, Moon was scheduled
for an interview that day on MBC. Moon seemed hopeful that
other television stations would follow suit.
 
¶3. (C) Moon said he anticipated some difficulty in
attracting politicians from other parties to join CKP, but
was doubtful that having more politicians in the party would
make a significant difference. The party's goal is to
differentiate itself from the UNDP, not look like an
extension of it. Moon also claimed the UNDP's unpopularity
had eroded its power -- even with 144 legislators, their
candidate only had a 5 percentage point lead over Moon (NOTE:
Chung's lead is actually almost 10 percentage points).
 
¶4. (C) Moon said it will be easy for the progressives to
unite behind a single candidate because Lee Myung-bak's
popularity will decrease in the coming weeks, giving a single
progressive candidate a chance at winning the presidency.
The real question is how the progressives should decide on
this single candidate -- by picking the candidate with the
highest polling numbers or through another primary election.
This is a decision that will be made in the coming weeks.
 
----------------------------------------
Increasing International Competitiveness
----------------------------------------
 
¶5. (C) One of Moon's pledges is to increase Korea's
international competitiveness. Korea currently is ranked 11
in competitiveness by the World Economic Forum (WEF) up from
23 just last year. (NOTE: The Geneva-based WEF releases the
rankings in its annual "Global Competitiveness Report," which
analyzes countries' competitiveness in 113 catagories.)
Moon's goal is to increase competitiveness and get Korea to
rank 5th through increased transparency, reduced corruption,
and more collaboration with neighboring countries.
 
--------------------------------------
"Corruption is the Enemy of Democracy"
--------------------------------------
 
¶6. (C) On December 19, Korea will choose between a society
with more corruption or one with less, according to Moon. If
they choose the latter (i.e., voting for Moon), on December
20 Korea could be "reborn" into a corruption-free society.
Decreasing corruption as well as improving Korea's credit
rating would help foster more foreign direct investment,
 
especially from the United States. Corruption is the enemy
of democracy, Moon said, and occurs when society is too
closed; opening to the world is the only way to overcome
crony capitalism and nepotism.
 
--------------------------------
Corruption "Dooms" Lee Myung-bak
--------------------------------
 
¶7. (C) Grand National Party (GNP) candidate Lee Myung-bak is
"doomed to fail" because of corruption. Yun said people are
gradually changing their minds and now think Korea is being
hurt by this corruption. Interestingly, Yun was not sure
that Kim Kyung-joon's return to Korea will precipitate Lee's
downfall (reftel b). Kim is a crook and a liar, and is open
to the highest bidder. Consequently, Kim could conceivably
come back and defend Lee. Moon wagers that it will actually
be a combination of factors that bring Lee down. His
approval ratings have already dropped from 65 percent to
around 50 percent. Once he goes below the 50 percent
"tipping point," his ratings will easily slide to 35 percent.
Moon said Lee's support is soft because it hinges on the
public's disapproval of the current administration, not on
agreement with his policy proposals.
 
¶8. (C) Meanwhile, Lee has launched a negative campaign
against Moon, alleging Moon received USD 6 million in stock
options the day before he left Kimberly-Yuhan. Moon said
this was ridiculous; the company had no reason to give him a
bonus because he was leaving the company and, furthermore,
all stock options are distributed at the annual meeting.
Moon sued Lee over the matter.
 
-----------------
Bring in the Beef
-----------------
 
¶9. (C) Moon argued there is no danger in importing American
beef. He said he often points out to people that no one in
America has mad cow disease, so there is no cause for
concern. The United States should emphasize that its beef
industry is competing with Australian beef and not Korean
beef. Moon asserted that raising livestock in Korea is not
good for the environment. The cattle industry sprang up a
mere 30 years ago due to a presidential decision that Korea
should develop the domestic beef industry. At that time,
Samsung bought cattle and donated them to local farmers and
an industry was born. This is not an indigenous industry, is
not sustainable, and results in environmental degradation and
water pollution. This is one of many points that, if
communicated to the public, would argue in favor of U.S. beef
imports.
 
-----------------------------
Korea Needs the U.S. Alliance
-----------------------------
 
¶10. (C) Moon said Korea needs to strengthen both diplomatic
and military relations with the United States. He repeated
earlier comments (reftel a) that, if a large country like the
United States needed allies to ensure its security, allies
are even more important to a small country like Korea. The
best allies, Moon said, are those far away because neighbors
can sometimes be a security threat. Because of its
capability and distance, the United States is in the best
position to protect Korean interests. Moon said even if
North Korea disarms, South Korea would still need U.S. troops
on the peninsula.
 
--------------------
Looming China Threat
--------------------
 
¶11. (C) Moon told the Ambassador that South Korea and the
United States should work in concert to improve relations
with the North, an imperative given that China is
increasingly becoming a threat economically and militarily.
Moon said the only problem with the Six-Party Talks is that
they have forced North Korea to be overly reliant on China --
a very dangerous situation because of China's historical
influence in the region. Moon said we need to draw North
Korea away from China by improving North Korean-U.S.
 
relations and North-South relations. Releasing North Korea
from China's hold might also improve South Korea's
relationship with Russia, he added.
 
-----------------------------
Regional Economic Development
-----------------------------
 
¶12. (C) Korea should take advantage of Russian and North
Korean resources, Japanese technology and capital, and
American entrepreneurialism in developing the economy of
Northeast Asia. In his June meeting with President Putin,
Moon said the Russian leader lamented the lack of Korean
investment in the Russian Far East. Russia is especially
receptive to investment in Vladivostok because of the planned
2012 APEC meetings there. Moon said the priority for Korean
 
companies should be the North Korean border area and the
southern tip of Russia. Korean construction companies in
particular should focus their efforts on Russia instead of
building a canal in South Korea that 81 percent of the people
do not want, a reference to Lee Myung-bak's much-criticized
proposal to build a canal from Seoul to Busan.
 
-------
Comment
-------
 
¶14. (C) Moon's positions are generally more centrist than
UNDP candidate Chung Dong-young's, which often focus more on
the redistribution of wealth than on growing the economy.
Nevertheless, Moon is receiving much more support than Chung
from center-left NGOs, especially the environmental lobby.
No one outside his immediate circle believes Moon has a shot
at the Blue House this time around. Still, he is not likely
to throw in the towel easily either, because he sees the
upcoming election as an opportunity to establish himself as a
legitimate player in the South Korean political scene.
VERSHBOW